Jumping on the Cain Train

In the last couple weeks, Herman Cain has risen more than 10 points in national polls asking potential GOP voters who they would nominate in 2012.

Almost as many points as he has won, Rick Perry has lost.  This has put Cain in a tie or even a slight lead over the Texas governor.

But what does all this mean?

I said Perry would not last in the race, having arrived with the fanfare he did.  This is for a few simple reasons.

1.  He has a history with the Democratic Party.

This is a huge point.  Americans are sick of "politicians" in the sense of elected officials who change their views as quickly as the wind changes direction.

2. He has never run for election outside of his state.

The campaign for presidency is much more difficult than a state election.  There are much larger issues to consider with wider audiences, which mean you have to watch what you say.  Perry has admitted multiple times in debates that he hasn't formulated plans on issues such as fixing the tax code or health care reform.
Added into this is Perry's history of leading with a heavy hand and intimidation.  There have been a lot of reports from former employees that say he wasn't the most cooperative executive in Texas.

3.  People expected too much from him.

If there is one thing I have learned about the GOP electorate from this election cycle and the one in 2008 is that candidates should fear fanfare upon entering the race.  Fred Thompson was greeted with huge enthusiasm and his campaign imploded in a few months.  The same is happening with Perry.  The GOP is in searching so hard to find "the next Reagan" that the favored candidate is expected to be at that level.  The strange thing is, no one in the race is a Reagan - they are either more moderate or more conservative. Thus Republicans are left grasping at smoke as they cannot find their prophet.

But enough about Perry, this article is about Herman Cain.

I think Cain is going to experience similar problems as Perry - what I will dub the "Reagan Effect."  Let's look at why people are starting to like him.

1. Cain has answers.

Cain's "9-9-9" plan has been the scrutiny of recent debates, interviews, and news articles.  There hasn't even been serious deep consideration for the plan, Cain has just explained time and again what the plan is; and people are eating it up.  They care less about what the plan is and more that there is a plan.

2.  Cain eliminates the race issue.

This has been an issue for Republicans since the 60s.  When looking at how African Americans vote, the numbers are overwhelming in favor of the Democratic party to the tune of 95%.  This week Cain said he could get 33% of the black vote and he's likely right.
African Americans have strong socially conservative values and perhaps more importantly, they have shown disfavor towards Obama.  In a recent poll, only 55% of blacks approved of Obama's job as president.
On a head to head debate, Obama's advantage being a minority is lost.

3.  Cain is a businessman.

A common thread in our political atmosphere today is a dissatisfaction of the establishment.  Herman Cain offers a perspective almost exclusively from the private sector. The public has perceived Cain is above the taint of Washington, which puts him in a favorable light.

So what will cause Cain's campaign to implode?

1. He isn't an experienced politician.

While being a businessman is a positive for him, it will ultimately be his undoing.  His lack of experience in the political realm will only become more obvious as we go along.  This is particularly true because the presidential race is the most difficult campaign in American politics.

2.  He is a policy lightweight.

I find it surprising how many people have forgotten how little knowledge Cain has on foreign policy issues.  Let me give you three examples.  In May, he didn't know what the Palestinian Right of Return was, in July he thought the U.S. recognized Taiwan as a legitimate and independent government, and two days ago he bashed the idea of knowing the president of a made up country that sounds awfully familiar to Uzbekistan.

This would be less of an issue if we didn't have multiple foreign conflicts going on and tense relations with half the world - but we do.

3.  Money could be an issue.

We know Cain raised just under $2.5 million dollars in the second quarter this year.  For people who need a reference to that, Mitt Romney raised $18.25 million, Ron Paul raised $4.5 million, and Tim Pawlenty raised $4.2 million.

Cain has yet to release his third quarter totals, and we can expect them to be higher since he has risen in the polls, but I doubt he will have enough to compete with Romney.

All I ask is this: let's stop the Cain train before it can start gaining momentum.  The man is not fit for the job and even in the unlikely event that he does beat out Obama, he will not change our policies in any noticeable way.

If you are sick of the status quo - as I know many of you are - check our Ron Paul.  Agree or disagree with him, at least he's different.